Thoughts Before The Alarm Sounds

     I am beginning to think that high schools and colleges have discontinued the teaching of science, particularly to Congresspersons. Especially in the Republican Party, a complete lack of scientific education appears to be a requirement for membership. And it's a damned shame, because the world economy runs on scientific knowledge, and to make vital economic decisions on the basis of superstition or lack of knowledge is like driving a horse and buggy in the Indianapolis 500. Here are a few cases in point:      A perfect example is the recent comment by Representative Todd Akin, the Republican Senate nominee from Missouri. “It seems to me, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare,” Rep. Akin said of pregnancies from rape. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”      I presume that “legitimate” rape is the situation in which the victim is physically forced to...

      Our Congressional economic experts have finally agreed on a compromise that will enable them to raise the government's debt ceiling. That's good news, right?       Well, yes and no. Yes, because the nation will be able to keep its promises to creditors, and no, because they have just guaranteed that the longest recession since WWII will continue.      The agreement cuts government spending by more than $2 trillion over the next decade. The exact targets of the slashing ax are yet to be established, but supposedly all expenses are on the table.      If Congress cannot agree on the exact items to be cut by the end of 2011, spending cuts of $1.2 trillion across much of the federal budget, including the Pentagon, domestic agency budgets and farm subsidies, will be triggered . Many federal benefits programs, however, would not be hit by this contingency, including Social Security, Medicaid, vete...

     President Obama's bipartisan commission on deficit reduction has released a draft of some of the things the full panel is considering. The final report is due December 1st, but members of the panel are not sure that they will be able to agree on provisions of the magnitude of those in the draft by that time. In any event, if Congress were to vote on the full proposal (which is doubtful), the vote would be non-binding.      The commission is apparently doing a good job, because there is plenty for everyone, regardless of ideology, to hate.      Liberals positively loathe the idea of cutting back on the (usually) annual COLA adjustment for Social Security recipients, raising the retirement age to 69 by the year 2075, and making a larger portion of Social Security benefits subject to Federal Income Tax. For example, the President of the AFL-CIO commented, "The chairmen of the deficit commission just told working Americans t...

     The primary election season is over, and experts are scratching their heads as to what the effect will be on November 2nd. Two months ago the Republican party had stood to gain many seats, possibly enough to gain control, in both the House and the Senate. However, with the nomination of Tea Party candidates in Nevada, Kentucky, Alaska, Colorado, Florida and Delaware, no one is sure how this shift to the very far right will affect the voters.      Not all Republicans, including most of the party leaders, are enamored of the Palin/Limbaugh/Fox line – will those voters stay home on election day, or will they reluctantly decide to vote the party ticket regardless of who the candidate is?      Meanwhile the Democrats believe that the further to the right the Republicans move, the better their own chances. I am not sure if that is true, but they have their own problem: so far their members appear unenthusiastic about the elect...

     Although people have rung in from all points of the political spectrum with complaints about President Obama, there is one big argument in his favor: he has kept his campaign promises. He promised a tax cut, and his stimulus package delivered a cut (conveniently forgotten by the opposition) of $282 billion over two years. He promised to get troops out of Iraq – only 50,000 remain. He promised to agressively advance the war in Afghanistan – he has done so. He promised to create a universal healthcare plan – there is no doubt that he has done that. And he promised to bring the parties together for peace talks in the Middle East – the talks began last week and are continuing tomorrow.      But with all that, why has his approval rating sunk so low? As Bill Clinton said, “It's the economy, stupid.” Obama wasted a huge portion of his political capital on a stimulus that was way, way too small. I have written several times about the inadaquacy of ...

      At all times Americans seem to need some controversial topic on which to disagree - Heaven knows, there are certainly enough of them at the present time. I have selected three of them to discuss briefly – two of them have been around for several years, and one is current. I offer no solutions, but I have tried to boil the discussions down to questions to ask ourselves, or in one case, a metaphorical description of the topic.      Scientists have been making us aware of global warming for several years. Most people believe it is happening, but the mechanism behind it is controversial: is it caused by manmade greenhouse gases, or is it a naturally occurring phenomenon? In either case there are some things we can do to alleviate the problems. Washington politicians have elected to argue about the cost of safety measures, as a result they do nothing. Bloggers and pundits have been asking variations of the following question: Don’t th...

      There is a saying that the success of a business is dependent upon three things: location, location, location, and for many businesses that is true. For example, if you are managing a restaurant or a retail store, your establishment needs to be located where customers can easily find it.       But no matter what your business, whether you are a drug dealer, an aircraft manufacturer, or anything in between, there are three things even more important than location: customers, customers, customers. Especially with the increasing use of online buying, if you have a good delivery service available, your business could be located way back in the mountains. But without customers, you may as well be selling buggy whip sockets or antimacassars (look it up).       There are very few people who can afford to be a customer without having a job. So it is extremely important for the economy to include a large number of...

      If a water pipe bursts inside your house, whom do you call, your plumber or your pastor? As ridiculous as this question sounds, it is a metaphor for the problem facing President Obama at this time. I am afraid he is going to call the pastor.       We are in the midst of a partial recovery from a reasonably deep recession, and the question for him is from whom to get advice - economists or ideologues. Should he seek advice from men who have devoted a lifetime to studying economics, or from conservative Democrats, Republicans, Tea Partiers and others who got us into this position during the reign of King George (2001-2009)? Should he trust the guidance of pilots who know the waters, or should he let the ones who steered us unto a sandbar take a second run at the beach?       In 1929 the economy was bustling along, and the Gross domestic Product value was at an all time high of $103.6 billion. Then the depre...