A recent letter in the local newspaper included a remark
which is practically an article of faith for climate change deniers. I believe
it is also a problem for many believers.
The writer stated that because “weather forecasters today can’t
predict the weather accurately for the next two weeks,” computer models
attempting to follow climate change are also inaccurate.
Such
models may well be inaccurate, but not because of any connection between the
two disciplines; meteorology and climatology are completely unrelated studies. According
to Wikipedia, meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere,
while climatology is the study of weather conditions averaged over a period of
time.
Meteorologists
work with the degrees and interactions of variables that exist in the
atmosphere – such things as temperature, air pressure,
water vapor, etc. Their range of inquiry is restricted to the short term:
days or weeks.
Their
tools consist of sensors of all kinds: anemometers, thermometers, barometers and
hygrometers, as well as visual examination of cloud covers, sunsets, etc.
Major
breakthroughs came in the twentieth century with the real-time monitoring of
the upper atmosphere through the use of weather balloons and weather satellites.
For the first time ocean currents and their effect on the weather could be
continuously monitored through the use of permanent sensors mounted on the
ocean floor. High speed communications also made possible the creation of
current weather maps and the exchange of other pertinent data.
Climatologists
seek to reconstruct past climates by examining data locked in ice
cores and tree rings. These same records are used to help determine hurricane
frequency over millennia. The study of contemporary climates incorporates
meteorological data accumulated over
many years, such as records of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric
composition. These studies are used to develop algorithms to determine the future climate change.
Think
of it this way: Climate is similar to one’s personality; weather compares to
one’s mood. A person with a wonderful personality is bound to wake up
occasionally in a bad mood.
Nelson
Mandela said “I am fundamentally an optimist . . . [but there] were many dark
moments when my faith in humanity was sorely tested.” And sour personalities
have their good days - think Ebenezer Scrooge on Christmas day.
Presently
the world’s climate (personality) is going through an unusual period (mood) - a
rather prolonged one because of the time scale involved.
At
last count about 5% of the experts who devote their lives to the study of
climate are unconvinced that human activity is a large factor in climate
change. If one wishes to follow the lead of that group, or any other
self-proclaimed “expert,” that’s fine – the seriousness of the problem cries
out for dialog, not for name-calling. Getting the terminology right will avoid discussion
of irrelevancies such as the TV weatherman’s inaccuracy rate.
******
My books, “There Are Only Seven Jokes” and “The Spirit Runs Through
It” are available in paperback or Kindle at Amazon.
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