Thoughts Before The Alarm Sounds

     . . . or is it? On Monday August 29, 2009, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele appeared on ABC-TV's Good Morning America . In introducing the Republican National Committee's “Seniors’ Health Care Bill of Rights” (SHCBoR), Mr. Steele stated, "We should protect the seniors' ability to access health care.”      The first item promised by the SHCBoR was, “. . . [to] protect Medicare and not cut it in the name of health care reform.” Mr. Steele claimed that the health care plan being proposed by the Democrats would cut Medicare funding by $500B. Actually the proposed savings, none of which came from cutting benefits to seniors , was $219B.      Jump forward to April 5, 2011. The new House Republican majority introduced a budget called The Path to Prosperity . If Congress follows “the path,” current recipients and future Medicare beneficiaries age 55 and older will see no change in benefits.   ...

     The history of politicians being caught with their pants down, literally, goes back a long way, but until Bill Clinton's adventures came to light, no one seemed to care very much. And it seems as if the burden of infidelity has fallen more often on stalwarts of the Republican party.      Oh, I know the Democrats have had their free-swingers, e.g. Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, John Edwards and the fore-mentioned Bill Clinton, but they are not the ones who are out there preaching “family values” as part of their party platform. And although the Democrats have often engaged in “left-wing social engineering,” they are not attempting to highjack must-pass bills, e.g. raising the debt ceiling, by attaching “right-wing social engineering” anti-abortion and anti-gay riders to it. (Left-wing and right-wing social engineering terms were raised by Newt Gingrich on the May 15th telecast of Meet The Press. On May 17th he asked everyone to forget he e...

     I came across an item on Today which stated that Saturday, May 14th was World Naked Gardening Day . Thinking it was some kind of a gag, I did a little research, and it not only was not a gag – I discovered a couple of other nude holidays: June 11th is Naked Bike Riding Day and June 21st is Nude Hiking Day . Who knew?      Although I know some gardeners, I am pretty sure that none of them celebrated WNGD. I can't blame them because the weather was rather cold and damp, although that probably had nothing to do with their non-celebration of this great event.      I also know some bikers and hikers, and while the weather will probably be more agreeable in June, I doubt that anyone I know will be celebrating these little-known holidays. But I'll keep my eyes open, just in case.      During my research, I discovered that there are many unusual holidays; in fact, every day of the year has two or three. I h...

     ...and ignore those who elected you to office.      The Marcellus Shale was deposited almost 400M years ago in an area running from Ohio through West Virginia, western Maryland, western and northern Pennsylvania, and into southern New York state. Far beneath the surface of the sea which covered the area, organic material trapped in the shale formed into pools of oil. Some liquid petroleum can still be found in the western area; further east the oil was converted to natural gas during still deeper burial some 240M years ago.      Because of the continuously increasing cost of fuel, recovery of natural gas from shale has become economically feasible. The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that the Marcellus contains 252 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and that volume could increase as more advanced technology becomes available. The Marcellus is the second largest source of natural gas in the world; som...

     The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes the price of gasoline and food, shows an increase of 2.7% over March, 2010. Gasoline at the pump rose 5.6% in March alone, and is now 27.5% higher than it was a year ago. Food is 2.9% higher than it was at March 31st, 2010.      Economists generally consider the core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, to be a better indicator of long-term inflation. At March 31st this index was just 1.2% higher than it was a year earlier – hardly a harbinger of runaway inflation. Unfortunately, most of us have to live with short-term inflation; regardless of what the price at the pump will be in six months, we have to deal with it today.      According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (USBLS), in spite of a 0.6 increase in average weekly hours worked, real average weekly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% between March 2010 and March 2011. People are working longer and ...

     When I read in yesterday's newspaper that the Rapture was coming on May 21st at 6 pm, I thought about calling my attorney to make sure that my estate, such as it is, would go to persons among the chosen few. Then I realized that I had no way of telling who would be chosen and who would not.      Further reflection convinced me that it doesn't matter – those chosen would not need what little pittance I had planned for them, while those remaining behind would be too busy suffering the events of the Tribulation.      Perhaps a little digression would be good at this point. According to Wikipedia, the Rapture is a reference to 1st Thessalonians 4:15-17, in which Paul cites "the word of the Lord" about the return of Jesus to gather his saints. ...and the dead in Christ shall rise first: Then we which are alive and remain shall be raptured (or "caught up") together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air.  ...

     One of the ways Republicans are trying to sell their Medicare proposal is by claiming that beneficiaries would “be enrolled in the same kind of health-care program that members of Congress enjoy.” Let's examine that claim.      Suppose that on the date the “Roadmap for America's Future” becomes effective, a government employee and a non-government employee are enrolled in a family health care plan for which the total annual premium is $7,600. The government pays $5,700 (75%) of its employee's plan and allows a $5,700 tax credit for the non-government employee.      Assume that the next year the premium increases by $50 per month for an annual premium of $8,200. For the government employee his employer will pay $6,150 (75%) of the premium – he will pay the usual 25%.      The non-government employee will also see an increase in his tax credit, but it will be based on the inflation rate. Suppose the ra...

     Many TV crime dramas have a plot similar to the following: A crime boss goes into hiding. The police form a special undercover unit to find him. After months of questioning suspects, following up leads, etc., they locate his hideaway. A swat team raids his hideout, and he is killed in the ensuing gun battle.      Change “crime boss” to “Osama bin Laden,” the “undercover unit” to “CIA and SIS (Pakastani secret service),” and the “swat team” to “79 heroic Navy Seals;” now you have the story the U.S. has been waiting for since September 11, 2001.      The point is that bin Laden was found, not by the coalition forces in Afghanistan, but by good police-style work. He wasn't in Afghanistan. Although the armed forces were the best-trained in history, they were looking in the wrong place!      The old story goes that one night Johnny found his friend, Billy, crawling around on his hands and knees under a st...

     ...or starve the government beast – take your pick.      On April 24th I wrote about Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis) “Roadmap For America's Future,” and its planned changes to our income tax structure. Today I will look at the Roadmap's proposals for the health care system. Although there is a connection between the health care system and Medicare, I will defer discussion of Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security until a later date.      Under the traditional system, people buy medical treatment either by paying cash for services or by buying insurance. Those who cannot afford either method may be eligible for Medicaid, and those over 65 years of age get partial coverage under Medicare. Medigap insurance is also available to cover the difference between Medicare coverage and actual medical expenses.      The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) is a federal statute that was signed into law by Presi...

     ...or starve the government beast – take your pick.      As with all such plans, Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis) “Roadmap For America's Future” contains numerous changes to our national priorities. Today I wish to write about the changes Ryan and the Republican Party would make to our income tax structure. I will discuss other facets of the Roadmap in upcoming days.      The Roadmap would not repeal our current personal income tax structure, but would set up a simplified system parallel to it. Taxpayers would be allowed to choose which system they wish to use.      Under the simplified system there would be only two tax brackets, 10% on the first $100K of taxable income for joint filers, and 25% on taxable income in excess of $100K. It would allow a generous standard deduction and personal allowance ($39K for a family of four). The only credit allowed would be a healthcare credit, which I will discuss at a ...

     In the unlikely event that readers did not notice the new heading for this blog, please look at it now. It's true – I now have two books for sale on the internet.      The radio show Can You Top This? ran on NBC from 1940 until 1954. As many as 6,000 jokes per week were submitted by the radio audience. Emcee Peter Donald read those selected to a panel of three comedians, “Senator” Edward Ford, Harry Hershfield and Joe Laurie, Jr. It was up to each of the three panelists to “top” Donald's joke with another on the same subject. Judgement was rendered by a “laugh meter,” which measured the reaction of the studio audience to each joke. Contestants whose jokes were used on the air received ten dollars; each time one of the panelist's jokes did not top Donald's joke, the contestant received an extra two dollars.      During one of the airings, one of the panelists made the statement, “There are only seven jokes.” Unfortunatel...

     Intelligence (in teľ i jәns), n. Capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, and similar forms of mental activity; aptitude in grasping truths, relationships, facts, meaning, etc. Webster's Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary.      According to the New York Post of March 29, 2011, “Man again proved no match for machine yesterday during a much-hyped "Jeopardy!" challenge - with Watson, IBM's latest and greatest in artificial intelligence, crushing its two human opponents.”      For humans Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, Jeopardy! is a souped-up version of Trivial Pursuit, the popular game of the 1980s. The two humans did not lack the storehouse of trivia necessary to beat the machine; their nervous systems simply could not compete with the electronic speed of the computer.      In the words of David G. Myers, Psychology 4th Edition .New York:Worth Publishers Inc,1995: 43: “Depending on the type of ...

     I have devoted several blog entries to indicating how our economic system moves money from the not-so-deep pockets to the very-deep-pockets of our society. Today I am going to list the top ten corporations that donated to Republican candidates, and the top ten who gave to Democratic candidates. Amounts listed are in millions of dollars, and include donations to state candidates: Corporation Total Contribution Republican Recipients Perry Homes 12.24 11.13 TRT Holdings 5.26 5.26 Chartwell 3.34 3.30 Altria 3.14 2.07 Goldman Sachs 3.06 2.08 Bank of America 2.80 1.68 Koch Industries 2.52 2.27 Home Depot 1.53 1.04 Wells Fargo 1.72 1.13 Exxon Mobil 1.62 1.30 Totals 37....

     I received an email purporting to quote Billy Graham's daughter, Anne Graham Lotz. According to the email Ms. Lotz was speaking at a “Superintendent of Schools Seminar.” When she was asked what she thought was leading to the decay of morality and self-respect in the young students today, she supposedly replied, “...when the Courts [decided] to take God (Lord's Prayer) and respect for our Country (Pledge of Allegiance To Our Flag), and took down the symbol of our Country (picture of George Washington) out of the Classroom".      An exhaustive search failed to find any evidence of Ms. Lotz having spoken at such a seminar, nor could I verify that she had ever made such a statement. The closest I could find took place on CBS's “The Early Show” on September 13, 2001. Interviewer Jane Clayson asked, "I've heard people say, those who are religious, those who are not, if God is good, how could God let this (the September 11 attack) happen? To that, ...

     Please take a good look at this list: 03/24/1998 Jonesboro, AR 5 11 04/20/1999 Littleton, CO 15 24 03/12/2005 Brookfield, WI 8 4 03/21/2005 Red Lake, MN 10 5 01/31/2006 Goleta, CA 7 1 10/02/2006 Nickel Mines, PA 5 5 02/12/2007 Salt Lake City, UT 5 4 04/16/2007 Blacksburg, VA 33 25 12/05/2007 Omaha, NE 9 4 02/07/2008 Kirkwood, MO 5 2 02/14/2008 Dekalb, IL 6 18 04/03/2009 Binghamton, NY 14 4 11/05/2009 Fort Hood, TX 13 30 01/07/2010 St. Louis, MO 4 5 01/08/2011 Tucson, AZ 6 14      This is a small sample of gun related massacres in recent years in the United States. The numbers in the two right hand columns refer to the number of dead and wounded.      In the Tucson shooting a United States Congresswoman, Gabrielle Giffords, was seriously wounded, along with 13 other innocent bystanders. A U.S. District judge, a community outreach director and a nine year old girl were among the six bystanders who were killed...

     In the first two and a half months of 2011 the world has experienced an unprecedented string of floods, earthquakes and a cataclysmic tsunami. Now man has added a major disaster of his own: nuclear meltdown. Because Japan has been through all of these calamities before, it is probably the best prepared nation in the world to withstand these events, but the results indicate that no matter how extensive the preparations, they can be overwhelmed by nature.      Of course, this does not mean that we should not prepare for unexpected disasters to the best of our ability. It does take, however, something we do not seem to possess: the will. Here is an example of where we stand in that department:      According to The Christian Science Monitor , the Obama administration had decided to run a simulated terrorist 'dirty bomb' attack on Las Vegas last May. The test was canceled after Senator Harry Reid (D, Nevada) objected, saying...

     ...but it is going to last a long time for the rest of us. In order to speed up the flow of assets from the bottom of the economic pyramid to the top, the rich have acquired the services of a powerful ally: the U.S. Supreme Court. Observe the following: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce       According to its web site, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce “...is the world's largest business federation representing the interests of more than 3 million businesses of all sizes, sectors, and regions, as well as state and local chambers and industry associations...As the voice of business, the Chamber's core purpose is to fight for free enterprise before Congress, the White House, regulatory agencies, the courts, the court of public opinion, and governments around the world.”      In view of that declaration, note the following from the Daily Kos of March 14, 2011: Carter G. Phillips, who often represents the chamber and has argu...

     A few weeks ago I heard a concert by the Artie Shaw Orchestra. Younger readers wil not be familiar with Artie, but he was a clarinetest, composer and bandleader during the 1930s and 1940s. At the height of his popularity he was reportedly making $60,000 per week, which was pretty good for those times. While I did see most of the popular bands of the 1940s, I never did get to see his, although I did hear him speak at a jazz festival about 25 years ago.      But I did listen to his records – in fact, I still do. And I am sure that 80% of that audience a few weeks ago also listened to his records, and according to a show of hands, a huge majority had actually heard him in person, and came to the concert because they liked his band. I know that is true of the 30 people in the group with which I attended.     And here is the surprise – most of the group did not enjoy the concert! The band played Artie's arrangements, and although ...

      ...but it is going to last a long time for the rest of us. There is one more activity which is going to further increase the flow of assets from the not-so-rich to the very rich. It is called high-frequency trading (HFT) or “black box trading.” In comparison to the outflow of jobs, government incentives and pension liabilities, it has received relatively little publicity, but it is a one-way conduit for the average small investor's assets.      HFT uses high-speed computers to analyze incoming data and to process a huge volume of transactions at very high speeds. In 2009 only 2% of the 20,000 equity trading firms used HFT, but they accounted for 73% of the volume of transactions.      HFT users are usually hedge funds, and compete primarily with each other. Generally they hold short-term positions in equities, options, futures and other items that pass through the markets in huge lots; thus they do not compete dire...

     ...But it is going to last a long time for the rest of us. My last two postings listed several reasons why I believe the recession is going to be permanent for the non-rich. (See February 16 and February 21). Today I want to highlight another problem which will hinder the US from returning to the employment position which prevailed prior to the Bush years: Government pension committments.      According to researchers at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, state and city governments are committed to paying pensions in the amount of $3.574T for which no funds have been provided. In addition, estimates of unfunded Federal pensions are $600B, for a total of $4.174T. (The number doesn't look so big untill it is written out: $4,174,000,000,000). The New York Post estimates that current payments for all governmental pensions amount to $81,500 per year per household. That money comes out of our taxes and it does not includ...