Thoughts Before The Alarm Sounds

     I recently attended the 65th reunion of my high school class. It was a simple affair – it consisted of a buffet lunch, looking at old pictures, and drifting around the room greeting people we had not seen for many years.      But we didn't need a special program. It was surprising how quickly and clearly memories of long forgotten events came flashing back upon hearing a key word or two. Most were good memories, although there were occasional recalls of events that perhaps would have been better left in the hidden section of the mind. I do not think anyone deliberately mentioned any forgettable event – they arose as a byproduct of some more pleasant discussion.      In some cases it was not even necessary to say anything to bring back a memory. I was introduced to one lady who turned out to be a flame which was extinguished at graduation. (I almost said an old flame, but with post-youths such as I am, I hesitate to use...

     I live in a retirement community, which has, as a part of its facilities, a Healthcare Center for those elderly people who need 24/7 nursing care. As such, the Center is subject to state standards of operation.      Government inspectors come in, sometimes without warning, to assure that the required standards are being met. Such a drop-in occasion occurred on a recent Saturday morning.      Because no such center is perfect, our center received some deficiency tags; it is my understanding that the average inspection turns up an average of eight such tags. Here are a few of the deficiencies for which our Center got tagged: The inspectors were at our premises for four days. During that time they spotted three flies in the building. A tag was issued for a pest control deficiency. One patient arrived at the facility on Friday afternoon, the day before the inspector showed up at 9:00 am. The patient brought with her a sm...

     Not officially, of course, but the recent actions of the Great Comproloser certainly mirror those of his “loyal opposition.” In spite of Dick Cheney's remark that “deficits don't matter,” the Republican strategy for insuring that Obama is a one term president consists of carping about, what else? The deficit. (Cheney would probably not be conservative enough to run for office as a Republican in 2011.) And it might work, but Obama should know better than to join them.      But the problem is not the deficit, it's jobs, jobs, jobs.      On August 5, 2011, Standard and Poors lowered the Federal Credit Rating from AAA to AA+, a rating that most businesses would love to have. Expectations were that the government would have to pay a higher rate of interest in order to borrow money through T-bills, Treasury Bonds, etc. One week later, August 12, interest rates on government securities were at an all time low. Lenders still c...

     … if you are the United States of America. At least that's some many members of Congress seem to think. That's what the recent Debt Ceiling debacle was all about.      The U.S. does not borrow money to pay current expenses – it borrows money to pay items for which it is already obligated. If Congress wants to cut expenses, it should do so by curtailing spending through the budget process - not by refusing to pay bond-holders, government contractors and Social Security recipients, any more than an individual should just refuse to pay his mortgage or utilities.      The standoff was not a matter of the two sides being unable to reach an agreement; the idea that there was a disagreement was invalid from the start. It was similar to the case of a firefighter who lights fires because he likes to extinguish them.      Columnist Donald Kaul has come up with a good analogy:      The com...

      Our Congressional economic experts have finally agreed on a compromise that will enable them to raise the government's debt ceiling. That's good news, right?       Well, yes and no. Yes, because the nation will be able to keep its promises to creditors, and no, because they have just guaranteed that the longest recession since WWII will continue.      The agreement cuts government spending by more than $2 trillion over the next decade. The exact targets of the slashing ax are yet to be established, but supposedly all expenses are on the table.      If Congress cannot agree on the exact items to be cut by the end of 2011, spending cuts of $1.2 trillion across much of the federal budget, including the Pentagon, domestic agency budgets and farm subsidies, will be triggered . Many federal benefits programs, however, would not be hit by this contingency, including Social Security, Medicaid, vete...

      The founding fathers left us with two concise views of the role they expected government to play: In the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson wrote, “...all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness – That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men...” The Preamble to the Constitution states, “...in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, [we] do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”       Because of the makeup of society, however, the fathers were not quite as principled, at least by today's standards, as one would expect from the foregoing statements. Electors in federal...

     The decision to raise the debt limit of the United States Government should be a no-brainer, but the idiots in Washington seem to be unable to rise to that level. When a person, organization, and especially a nation makes a promise to pay, one should be able to expect that promise to be kept. Is it asking too much to assume the United States will pay your government bond when it comes due?      I find it hard to see the difference between demanding concessions for keeping one's word, and someone who takes a hostage and demands money for a safe return - both are bandits! This whole thing reminds me of little boys holding a pissing contest behind the barn.      I know there are legitimate arguments concerning government revenues and expenditures, tax reforms, entitlements, discretionary items, jobs, recession, wars, and a host of other subjects, but whether or not to throw the government into default is not one of them. Mo...

     The numbers being bandied about in Washington these days are so big that most non-mathematicians, especially politicians, can't conceive of their magnitude. So let me see if I can give you some idea of what these guys are talking about.      There are thousands of web sites one can visit in order to visualize large numbers, but for my purpose I wish to focus on just one number: $10B. You can either do the arithmetic or take my word for it: this would be a stack of one-dollar bills approximately 678 miles high.      Now let this $10B be represented by a standard pack of playing cards. The question is: If we piled up packs of cards to the height of the Federal Budget (Note 1) , how many packs would we need? The answer is 345 packs, or a 17.4-foot-high stack! Keep in mind: each pack represents a 678-mile-high stack of one-dollar bills!      But of that 368 pack budget, 211 packs have been set aside as ...

     Of all the wise politicians (another oxymoron) in Washington, who do you think made the following remark: “Government has to start living within its means, just like families do. We have to cut the spending we can’t afford so we can put the economy on sounder footing, and give our businesses the confidence they need to grow and create jobs.”? Rep. John Boehner R-OH), Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) or Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).      Although it could have been any of these, the quote is actually from President Obama's last weekend address to the nation. Apparently he was either joking, taken leave of his senses, or joined the Republican party. This is the same old gibberish the GOP has been mouthing since the days of Herbert Hoover. Let's look at these suggestions one at a time.      “Government has to start living within its means, just like families do.” The government is not a family – one excel...

     It should come as no surprise to readers of this blog to learn that the transfer of resources to the super-rich from everyone else is well underway. For details see the series “The Recession Is Over For Some People...” posted between 16 February and 18 March, 2011. A May, 2011, study by the Center for Labor Market Studies of Northeastern University , Boston, confirms it. For my purpose, two findings from the study are relevant:      (1) Using the lowest point, 30 June 2009, of the recent recession as the base figure, as of 30 April 2011, real corporate profits increased 39.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 45.8%, and Average Real Weekly Earnings of the Private Sector decreased 1.0%.      (2) During the same period, Annualized National Income grew by $505B. While corporations' share of the growth was 92%, the share going to wages and salaries was 0%.      A recent article in Forbes provide...

     If you are not into mathematics, don't worry – you can skip that part and still understand the discussion. But here are a few items that I find somewhat intriguing, and I hope you do too.      The Monty Hall Problem: I discussed this subject on 9 March 2010, so you can read the details there if you wish. Briefly, Monty Hall was the emcee of the game show “Let’s Make A Deal.” The contestant had a choice of three doors to open; behind one was a prize, and goats were hidden behind the other two. After the contestant chose one of the doors, Hall, who knew where the prize was, opened one of the doors behind which was a goat. The contestant was then given a choice: he could either open the door which was his original choice, or he could switch and open the other closed door.      Not surprisingly, most people opted to stay with their original choice. It seems logical that since there are now only two doors from which to choose...

     Even after observing the passing scene for over 80 years, I am still amazed at the emotions that are aroused by some words. In his 1933 work, Science and Sanity , Alfred Korzybski coined the phrases, “The word is not the thing” and “The map is not the territory,” indicating that knowing the name of an item does not mean that you know everything about the item itself. He recommended that new entities be observed on the silent level – a time for observing the reality without preconceptions. But it seems that many people fail to appreciate the wisdom of keeping these bits of advice in mind.      I live in a church-sponsored retirement community, which is in the process of constructing new facilities: a chapel, theater, gift shop, a small meeting room and a large community meeting room.      As explained at a recent residents' meeting, the administration discussed various names for the meeting rooms. For the smaller room, th...

     Some time ago I mentioned Ross Perot's “giant sucking sound” of jobs leaving the country in the wake of NAFTA (See February 16, 2011). As I stated, “If that sound is a whisper, today's sound of American jobs heading all over the globe is a space shuttle liftoff.” As of today that sucking sound has grown even louder.      According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics , the US unemployment rate for May was unchanged from the April figure: 9.1%. Private sector employment increased by 83,000; this is really a net loss because 125,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with the increase in the number of individuals entering the labor force.      Also in May the number of long-term unemployed increased by 361,000. That number now stands at 6.2 million.      It is important to note that the BLS's definition of unemployment includes only job seekers who have looked for work at some time during the ...

     Sunday I attended the paying of the rent by Zion Lutheran Church in Manheim, Pennsylvania. Paying rent doesn't sound like such a big deal – one writes a check and hands it to the landlord – but in this case it was a payment that started 239 years ago.      In 1762 (Baron) Henry William Stiegel and two partners purchased a tract of land on which Stiegel laid out the town of Manheim. In 1772 Stiegel, a devout Lutheran, deeded a tract of land to the church for “for five shillings and in the month of June yearly hereafter the rent of One Red Rose if the same shall be lawfully demanded.” According to tradition, Stiegel received the annual rent only two times, and apparently did not lawfully demand it thereafter.      In 1892 the present church was built, and except for two years during WWII, the annual payment of the red rose has been paid to a descendant of Stiegel ever since.      The 2011 payment was m...

     The Labor Department's hiring report for May came out in Saturday's newspapers, and it wasn't pretty. Just 54,000 jobs were created – far less than the expected 150,000. Although the private sector added 83,000 workers – the lowest monthly total in the past year - they were offset by the loss of 28,000 jobs in local governments – firefighters, police, teachers and clerks. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that up to 300,000 new jobs a month are required to significantly affect the unemployment rate.      Meanwhile, back in Washington, the figures elicited what can best be described as a collective “ho-hum,” as Congress decided to dance around the subject of raising the debt ceiling. Without such action, the nation will soon begin defaulting on its debts, with a corresponding increase in interest rates. Through April, interest on the national debt for fiscal year 2011 is on track to surpass 2010's total of $4.13B. That's 413 followed by...

     . . . or is it? On Monday August 29, 2009, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele appeared on ABC-TV's Good Morning America . In introducing the Republican National Committee's “Seniors’ Health Care Bill of Rights” (SHCBoR), Mr. Steele stated, "We should protect the seniors' ability to access health care.”      The first item promised by the SHCBoR was, “. . . [to] protect Medicare and not cut it in the name of health care reform.” Mr. Steele claimed that the health care plan being proposed by the Democrats would cut Medicare funding by $500B. Actually the proposed savings, none of which came from cutting benefits to seniors , was $219B.      Jump forward to April 5, 2011. The new House Republican majority introduced a budget called The Path to Prosperity . If Congress follows “the path,” current recipients and future Medicare beneficiaries age 55 and older will see no change in benefits.   ...

     The history of politicians being caught with their pants down, literally, goes back a long way, but until Bill Clinton's adventures came to light, no one seemed to care very much. And it seems as if the burden of infidelity has fallen more often on stalwarts of the Republican party.      Oh, I know the Democrats have had their free-swingers, e.g. Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, John Edwards and the fore-mentioned Bill Clinton, but they are not the ones who are out there preaching “family values” as part of their party platform. And although the Democrats have often engaged in “left-wing social engineering,” they are not attempting to highjack must-pass bills, e.g. raising the debt ceiling, by attaching “right-wing social engineering” anti-abortion and anti-gay riders to it. (Left-wing and right-wing social engineering terms were raised by Newt Gingrich on the May 15th telecast of Meet The Press. On May 17th he asked everyone to forget he e...

     I came across an item on Today which stated that Saturday, May 14th was World Naked Gardening Day . Thinking it was some kind of a gag, I did a little research, and it not only was not a gag – I discovered a couple of other nude holidays: June 11th is Naked Bike Riding Day and June 21st is Nude Hiking Day . Who knew?      Although I know some gardeners, I am pretty sure that none of them celebrated WNGD. I can't blame them because the weather was rather cold and damp, although that probably had nothing to do with their non-celebration of this great event.      I also know some bikers and hikers, and while the weather will probably be more agreeable in June, I doubt that anyone I know will be celebrating these little-known holidays. But I'll keep my eyes open, just in case.      During my research, I discovered that there are many unusual holidays; in fact, every day of the year has two or three. I h...

     ...and ignore those who elected you to office.      The Marcellus Shale was deposited almost 400M years ago in an area running from Ohio through West Virginia, western Maryland, western and northern Pennsylvania, and into southern New York state. Far beneath the surface of the sea which covered the area, organic material trapped in the shale formed into pools of oil. Some liquid petroleum can still be found in the western area; further east the oil was converted to natural gas during still deeper burial some 240M years ago.      Because of the continuously increasing cost of fuel, recovery of natural gas from shale has become economically feasible. The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that the Marcellus contains 252 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and that volume could increase as more advanced technology becomes available. The Marcellus is the second largest source of natural gas in the world; som...